Cracks Appear In The "Iron Triangle."

The developments in Europe and Asia are reminiscent of fleeing Julia Roberts in Runaway Bride, a Touchstone release.
But a sense of deja vu can help us show a true perception of the state of affairs in Europe and Asia.

Two Julias, Europe and Asia, have hinted at slipping out of the sway of America.

First, Europe crossed a Rubicon in pursuit of an "adult Europe" : at the Helsinki Conference in the end of last year, Europe officially approved the European Security and Defense Identity, of which thrust is the development by 2003 of a "rapid-reaction force" of 60,000 troops.

For Europe, the new security identity is small but definite window of opportunity for becoming an "independent Europe," though some observers believe it is a long shot.

What is the other Julia doing? In last November, Asian leaders came together in Manila, cranking up the development of the EU-style intra-Asian economic institutions.

Specifically, the Tokyo-Washington alliance, hitherto said to be as close as "lips and teeth," shows an ominous symptom of failure : Japan's own national reconnaissance satellites.

Maybe they are a vindication that Tokyo is quietly inching away from the "Yoshida doctrine," a deal that relieves Japan from responsibility and expense of rearming itself and let Japan zero in on fostering its economy.

The turnaround is unlucky, but little American schizophrenia has been detected thus far.
Partly this will be the natural concomitant of American self-confidence.

The U.S.economy is humming, and its military is unrivalled.
Yet Washington's overseas "paper-thin" credibility is a key suspect that is causing rift between America, Europe and Asia.
On the surface, this state of affairs in Europe and Asia can be viewed as a visible manifestation of European and Asian self-confidence and nationalism.

In reality, the events in Europe and Asia reflect both their pent-up hostilities toward American unilateralism and their fears about American isolationism.

The European and Asians grumble that the United States is running roughshod over them, throwing its weight around with no opportunity of considering other views.

Contradictorily, however, they worry about the United States trying to get off the "responsible power" hook : the National Missile Defense(NMD) system and U.S.' refusal to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty(CTBT).

The Europeans see the missile shield as evidence that America has its intention of establishing a clandestine structure in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO).

In China's eyes, the National Missile Defense system looks like a Straijacket in which the Middle Kingdom might be placed,thus hindering Beijing from unifying Taiwan with China.

The Clinton administration's fisaco to dissuade U.S. Congress from rejecting the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was a recipe for U.S.' humiliation.

It is tempting to argue that Europe and Asia's backlash counts for little and America's grip on power remains unchecked despite global criticism and suspicion.

Yet should the sole superpower Uncle Sam fail to recoup its damaged credibility, a Pandora's box of the disintegration of the "Iron Triangle" of intertwining America, Europe and Asia may be opened.

The catalyst is China's efforts to enlarge its scope for supremacy.
Things seem to take a dramatic turn in China's favor.
That Asian countries are skeptical of the commitment of the United States to Asia's stability gives a extra lift to the chances of China's rise to next superpower.

The United States trumpted the effectiveness of the "Win-win strategy" of handling mulitiple crises simultaneouly.
Yet the "Two conflict strategy" crystallized its Achilles' heel : the United States failed to skirt the worst-case scenario arguing there could be a military standoff in the Korean Peninsula's backyard, as might be proved by the brief U.S.-Iraq showdown in 1998.

Even Japan, America's close ally, senses a sign of the beginning of a potential power vacuum and may edge from the United States toward the country perceived as No.1.
Probably China will not hesitate to fill this vacuum.
At the same time, a chill in the Moscow-Washington relations is another potential time bomb ticking away.

Amid escalating tensions with the United States over its military campaign in Chechnya, Russia mirrored its underlying motive of brandishing the "nuclear sword."

This may not be Russia's show of military bravado.
Another nightmare scenario of some in Washington is the prospect of the China-Russia-India axis.

Russian Premier Yevgeni Primakov came up with an idea of forging a strategic triangle linking China, Russia and India in what looks like an effort to provide a counterbalance in what he calls a dangerously unipolar world.
These developments may be harbingers of the twilight of Pax Americana.

In global statecraft, nothing lasts eternally.
To stave off the worst-case scenario, the United States is well-advised to do something to put its flawed "Love Affairs" with two Julias, Europe and Asia, back on track.

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