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The Bush administration is now in the spotlight recently with regard to its relationship with North Korea as it indicates some slight but significant changes from the firm cynicism toward North Korea. The change was noticeable in the third round of six-party talks in Beijing last June when a new proposal came out from the US with its previous call for the "complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantling" (CVID) of the North Korean nuclear programs.
The so-called ‘CVID principle’ has been the basic rule for the Bush administration in dealing with North Korean nuclear issues, while the North has refused to accept the concept contending that is applicable only to the defeated nation. But such arguments were not replayed in the third six-party meeting.
“Despite differences in ideology and system, cooperation can take place in key areas”, said US Secretary of State Colin Powel who reconfirmed that the US has no intention to attack North Korea in his meeting with North Korean counterpart Baek Nam-soon on July 2. North Korea has certainly a good to take interest in such remarks, since the US indicates a possibility of coexistence with the communist country departing from the hard-line approach that has seen the North as “axis of evil” and the troublemaker that needs ‘regime change’.
Of course, more time is needed to get some insights out of these changes. Bulk of the solutions proposed during the Beijing talks still represent the unilateralism of the Bush style, and it remains unclear whether the hard-liners on the Bush side referred to as ‘Neocons’ also agreed with the changed US policy directions toward the North.
Part of the Presidential Campaign Strategies?
It is also highly possible that Bush is turning his eyes to North Korea as part of his campaign strategies in the upcoming presidential election, as he is having hard time getting out of the mounting criticism surrounding his unilateralism in foreign policies and the US-led strike in Iraq.
Furthermore, it is also burdensome for Bush that the complaints about the lack of interest in North Korean issues on the part of the Bush team which is so obsessed with Iraq are growing not just within the country but among neighbors including South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. Even Japanese Prime Minister Koisumi told Bush to try direct talks with North Korea.
What is also important to note is the Bush administration has very limited options in face of the election. It is almost like political suicide behavior if President Bush who is now bogged because of Iraq turmoil considers military actions against Pyeongyang.
Meanwhile, it is not easy to raise economic and political constraints against North Korea, either. One the one hand, North Korea itself will never surrender, but other countries like South Korea, China and Russia will no longer support but strongly contend.
What is more, Japan is also showing signs of departing from the Bush-led tough approach toward Pyeongyang. The relations between North Korea and Japan have consistently been improving since Prime Minister Koisumi visited Pyeonyang last May. Recently, the Prime Minister went further to express his willingness to conclude negotiations on normalization of diplomatic ties between the two countries within one year.
Given these circumstances that make Bush’s hard-line North Korean policy too risky to maintain, it is very politically burdensome if he fails to deliver proper solution to the tricky problem until the election. His rival John Kerry from Democratic Party, who cannot differentiate himself from George Bush in Iraqi policies because of his ‘original sin’ of supporting Iraqi war in the first place, is now focusing on North Korea in an attempt to attack Bush’s foreign policies.
If the North Korean nuclear issues remain unresolved at this point, the result would be more severe criticism on the Bush administration’s foreign policies which have mainly targeted ‘rogue states’ to take WMD out of them.
On the contrary, if the Bush administration successfully solves North Korean issues, the President will certainly have an upper hand in the expectedly hard-fought presidential race. At this time when Americans view North Korea as a major threat to world peace, Pyeongyang’s complete nuclear dismantlement will guarantee significant amount of votes on the part of the incumbent president George W. Bush. There are three points to consider here if this outcome comes out as Bush wants.
First, the Kerry camp will lose its steam significantly in attacking Bush, since Kerry has used Bush’s policy toward North Korea as a main source of criticism so far.
Second, the outcome will give President Bush good reason to boast about his achievements as his priority in foreign policy has been to deter proliferation of weapons of mass destructions. In particular, the conclusion takes place during six-party talks, Bush is likely to use the outcome to prove that his foreign policy has never been unilateral.
Third, the outcome will make it easy for Bush to justify his attack in Iraq. When Lybia abandoned its weapons of mass destructions late last year, the Bush team used the event as its political propaganda, saying that that was possible because of Iraqi war. What they argued means that the power of the US shown in Iraq encouraged Lybia choose the direction. If the North Korean nuclear standoff is successfully resolved, Bush will cite the event as another result of Iraqi war, proclaiming that the international efforts led by him have created safer world by giving Iraq democracy without Saddam Hussein, Lybia and North Korea more safety without nuclear weapons.
How will North Korea react?
If the Bush administration chooses to take a compromise attitude in the face of November election, how North Korea will react? The likely response would be that Pyeongyang continues to remain cold until the previous requests are completely fulfilled, since it sees John Kerry the better partner.
Particularly, if the resolution of nuclear stand-off before the election would give Bush the upper hand, North Korea is more likely to remain silent. If Bush’s appeasement approach is politically motivated considering the short-term goal of being reelected, North Korea can not guarantee the situation afterwards.
But there is also reason for optimism for Bush, as Pyeongyang may respond positively seeing this moment their great opportunity. The intention to handle the negotiations ‘with patience and flexibility’ which North Korea demonstrated during the last six-party talks speaks volume.
By all accounts, the probable scenario is that North Korea will try to achieve as many of what it wants as possible during negotiations with the Bush team, while taking something as security. Unsecured agreement will give Pyeongyang much reason to worry about unpredictability of the Bush’s foreign policy after election is over.
President Bush in this troubled situation needs help from Pyeongyang which he himself declared as “axis of evil’ to turn things around. Meanwhile, North Korea faces the time to make decisions on nuclear dismantlement which might save their long-time foe. The American presidential election is adding another source of perplexity to the already complicated issue of North Korean nuclear.
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