The Possibility of the Conservatives Coming into Power and the Peace of Korean PeninsulaSeven years ago, US Supreme Court made its final decision on the ballot counting controversy of Palm Beach, Florida, in favor of the then Presidential Candidate George W. Bush. The effect of this unconvincing decision heavily influenced the peace process of Korean Peninsula, putting a complete hold on it, as if trying to demonstrate the classic example of “Butterfly Effect.” Presently, President Bush is busily engaging in diplomacy by sending an autograph letter to Kim, Jeong-Il, Chairman of the National Defense Commission of North Korea, even stating, “I will resolve the North Korea’s nuclear issue within my term,” etc. This change in Bush’s approach along with North Korea’s positive responses and the progress between North and South Korea is resulting in the expectation that the peace of Korean Peninsula will be realized soon. The presidential elections of Republic of Korea (South Korea) after the year 1987, the year when direct presidential election was induced after a massive public demonstration, have coincided with important events affecting the Korean Peninsula. Roh, Tae-Woo Administration coming into power during the Post-Cold War period sought after the end of Cold War in Korean Peninsula through Nordpolitik, but US’s intervention and Roh Administration’s own hard-line policy against domestic affairs prevented the realization of any meaningful results. Kim, Young-Sam Administration advocating National Preference Policy, a policy calling for Korean national communities in North and South Korea to give priority to each other over foreign countries in matters concerning the Korean Peninsula, with the slogan of “Blood is thicker than alliance,” completely changed its stance after the First Nuclear Crisis of Korean Peninsula from March 1993 and even took a stance stronger than US announcing, “We cannot shake hands with someone in possession of nuclear weapons,” with regard to North Korea. Kim, Dae-Jung Administration embarked on its political journey with problems to resolve such as North Korea’s collapse and IMF foreign currency crisis and, at first, appeared to accomplish the goals of the cooperation between North and South Korea and the escape from the economic crisis, but obstacles laid by Bush Administration eventually blocked its efforts Roh, Moo-Hyun Administration facing the Second Nuclear Crisis of Korean Peninsula did not show much progress early in its term because of the firm framework of the South Korea-US Alliance, but it recently made a breakthrough by successfully concluding the Inter-Korean Summit Meeting and became the key player in this age of great changes of the Korean Peninsula. Then, how is the result of the Korean presidential election going to influence the future of the Korean Peninsula? Expectations that the peace process will continue regardless of the change of the administration are prevalent because the Korean people’s consensus on the engagement policy regarding North Korea is already strong enough and even Bush Administration is actively negotiating with North Korea. The political terrain of South Korea, however, will soon require the re-examination of this kind of optimistic view. President Lee, Myung-Bak and Casting Vote of Lee, Hoi-Chang’s New Party? The popularity of conservative politicians is growing stronger during these days before the current presidential election, and the competition of policies is almost lost. The total approval rates of Presidential Candidates Lee, Myung-Bak, the candidate of Grand National Party(GNP) and Lee, Hoi-Chang who was a two-time presidential candidate of the GNP and announced his third campaign for the South Korean presidency as an unaligned candidate after quitting the GNP, both claiming to be the original and true conservatives, amount to 60%, while those of the candidates classified as reformative and progressive only amount to 20%. The political terrain of South Korea has been fundamentally changing since 1997 presidential election from a long-term point of view and since 2004 general election from a short-term point of view. Whether this is only a temporal phenomenon or a prelude to the emergence of conservative bi-party system, as some people worry, cannot be determined for sure without examining the general election in April next year. It, however, seems to be certain that the conservatives are gaining popularity in general. In light of the current approval rates and the division within the conservative groups, the scenario most likely to unfold is Lee, Myung-Bak becoming the president and the emergency of a new party of Lee, Hoi-Chang holding the casting vote in the National Assembly. People began to say that Lee, Myung-Bak had already won the election after watching the Prosecutor’s Office vindicating him from the BBK suspicions, allegations against Lee, Myung-Bak for stock price manipulation. Shim Dae-Pyung of People First Party recently siding with Lee, Hoi-Chang and Lee, Hoi-Chang publicly announcing his intent to establish a new party could be interpreted as the second coming of United Liberal Democrats.If a political party headed by Lee, Hoi-Chang basing its support mainly from Chungcheong Provinces and part of Gyeongsang Provinces really materializes, it is very likely that the party will be one with considerable influence by holding a casting vote even though it may not win many seats in the National Assembly. What is going to happen to the peace process in Korea Peninsula, recently producing meaningful results if this political scenario actually takes place? Let us try to predict the future of the Korean Peninsula in 2008 on the assumption that Lee, Myung-Bak becomes the President and Lee, Hoi-Chang establishes a party, instead of examining the likelihood of the scenario being realized. North Korea-US relation is the vital point for the success of Lee, Myung-Bak’s North Korea policy Lee, Myung-Bak announced his “Denuclearization & Open 3000 Plan” where South Korea helps North Korea to achieve per capita GDP of USD 3,000 if North Korea agrees to choose the denuclearization and open policy. No matter how plausible this plan is, Lee, Myung-Bak’s North Korea policy is premised upon the resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. Bush Administration is negotiating with North Korea on give-and-take basis aiming to resolve the nuclear issue before the end of President Bush’s term. Ironically, this means that there can be a fundamental change in the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula under the leadership combination of Bush and Lee, Myung-Bak. This is so because Grand National Party Administration will not be able to carry forward a hard-line policy against North Korea in the face of President Bush going in an opposite direction. The same will apply to Lee, Hoi-Chang insisting on the full-scale re-examination of North Korea policy. Nevertheless, this rationale assumes the smooth progress of North Korea-US relation. If the relation worsens or gets stuck, the situation can change any time as the conservative political terrain of South Korea always has the potential to do so. The reason why Grand National Party including Lee, Myung-Bak has been somewhat open to North Korea is partially due to its unwilling policy synchronization with the Bush Administration’s new North Korea policy. This means that if North Korea-US relation is deadlocked and even becomes hostile, the Grand National Party Administration will more likely return to its hard-line policy against North Korea rather than actively attempting to resolve the situation. What is worse is that Lee, Hoi-Chang and his followers, called Neo-Cons of South Korea, will gain more influence, and this will strengthen the position of the hardliners in South Korea, US, and Japan; another opportunity converting into a crisis. The problem is that it is very difficult to predict the path of the North Korea-US relation. It is true that, during this year, the North Korea-US relation improved significantly and Bush and Kim, Jeong-Il are showing willingness to deal with the problems, but the hidden variables may arise anytime and change the outcome. If the three North Korea nuclear issues recently attracting great public attention, the allegation of the nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Syria, uranium enrichment program, and the exact amount of plutonium, are not constructively negotiated and discussed, there is a great likelihood that the peace process in Korean Peninsula will not progress smoothly further. At the same time, appropriate reactions towards North Korea’s abandoning of nuclear substances and weapons and the light water reactor issue to be discussed “at the appropriate time” will remain to be tough issues. If the general election is to be conducted while the relation between US-North Korea is stuck, Lee, Hoi-Chang will attempt to assemble the conservatives criticizing Grand National Party’s North Korea policies are the same as Kim, Dae-Jung’s Sunshine Policy. The fact that Lee, Hoi-Chang is insisting on a Neo-Con-style reciprocity and Lee, Myung-Bak a perplexing reciprocity supports this prospect. In conclusion, the Korean Peninsula, entering an age of great changes, will have to soon face the uncertainty arising from the domestic politics while going through the presidential election this year and general election next year. If the relation between US-North Korea goes well, the impact will not be so great, but if not, the results of the presidential and general elections will cause a lot of trouble. About ten years ago, the First Nuclear Crisis of the Korean Peninsula almost turned into a great chance when the 1994 Agreed Framework followed the crisis. This historic opportunity was lost mainly because of Kim, Young-Sam Administration’s hard-line policy against North Korea caused by the pressure from the conservatives in South Korea. Korean Peninsula is now facing the moment to make a decision; whether to resolve the Second Nuclear Crisis of the Korean Peninsula and be the key player in creating a new order or whether to stop short in front of the opportunity. Regardless of the outcome of the election, many Korean people hope that the conservatives realize the significance of this historic opportunity. 덧붙이는 글 Cheong, Wooksik is the representative of Peace Network(www.peacekorea.org). Kim, Yoon, the volunteer of Peace Network contributed to tranlsation of this article. #NUCLEAR ISSUE 이 기사는 생나무글입니다 생나무글이란 시민기자가 송고한 글 중에서 정식기사로 채택되지 않은 글입니다. 생나무글에 대한 모든 책임은 글쓴이에게 있습니다.
